Our Work
MODELS
Our modeling platforms are developed in-house and refined over years of real-world energy analyses — built to handle the full complexity of the energy transition.
EnergyPATHWAYS
Bottom-up demand forecasting
A bottom-up demand-side forecasting model with detailed energy system accounting — sales, stocks, service demands, costs, and equipment-level energy bill components. Produces full energy carrier demands with high spatial and temporal granularity, integrated with RIO for economy-wide scope.
From Our Research
EnergyPATHWAYS models the full U.S. demand side from the bottom up — every building, vehicle, and industrial process. This figure shows total U.S. final energy demand by fuel across three scenarios. In the Central scenario, electricity nearly doubles by 2050 while gasoline, diesel, and pipeline gas are largely displaced — the hallmark of a deep electrification transition.
Final energy demand · California · An electrification pathway
Today's energy mix
Electric demand stays relatively flat because motors and heat pumps deliver the same services with less energy than combustion.
EnergyPATHWAYS · U.S. Annual Decarbonization Perspective 2024
RIO
Capacity Expansion
Regional Investment and Operations model — a linear programming capacity expansion model that co-optimizes investment and dispatch across electricity, fuels, and end-use demand over multi-decade horizons. Uniquely integrates sector coupling, flexible loads, and detailed policy constraints at high temporal resolution.
From Our Research
RIO optimizes how the power system gets built over time — every gigawatt of new solar, wind, gas, and storage is a decision the model makes. This figure shows U.S. installed electricity capacity by technology across three scenarios from the 2024 ADP. In the Central scenario, solar and wind together reach over 2,700 GW by 2050 as coal exits and gas shifts toward a backup role.
U.S. electricity capacity · Central scenario
2024RIO decides what gets built — and when. It optimizes every gigawatt of investment across the entire electricity system, co-solving generation, storage, and flexible demand simultaneously. Watch the U.S. power grid transform as coal exits and wind and solar scale dramatically.
RIO-ENSEMBLE
Modeling to generate alternatives
A modeling-to-generate-alternatives framework built on RIO that explores the universe of near-optimal energy system futures. Rather than finding a single least-cost pathway, ENSEMBLE reveals the full landscape of viable solutions — showing where decisions are robust and where they depend on assumptions.
From Our Research
Instead of a single answer, ENSEMBLE generates dozens to thousands of near-optimal futures — all nearly equal in cost. Each line below is a legitimate, viable U.S. energy pathway. The white line is the least-cost solution; the blue lines are alternatives within 1% of that cost. The spread between them reveals where assumptions drive outcomes and where decisions are robust.
Near-optimal pathways · all within 1% of least cost
0 / 80Traditional modeling finds one answer. ENSEMBLE finds 80 in this example, all within 1% of the least-cost solution, with hundreds or thousands more possible by widening the solution window. The white line is the optimal; blue lines are equally viable alternatives. The spread reveals where the energy transition is settled and where it genuinely depends on assumptions.
Emporium
Production cost modeling
A production cost model that integrates directly with RIO, combining two-pass optimization (LP + daily MILP) with multi-sector coupling across electricity, hydrogen, steam, and fuels. The model explicitly represents unit commitment, long-duration storage, and conversion assets like electrolyzers and heat pumps.
From Our Research
Emporium operates at the hourly level, modeling unit commitment and dispatch across every generator on the system. This figure shows a representative day of generation by source in winter and summer — revealing how the mix of renewables, storage, and thermal assets shifts with season, load, and weather.
Hourly dispatch · Europe · winter
Midnight — wind & nuclear carry the load
Emporium models every generator, every hour. The full day is shown below — each column is one hour of European power generation. The season flips automatically to show how the mix shifts with weather and load.
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