Annual Decarbonization Perspective
U.S. ADP 2024
Evidence-based strategies for the United States to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Featuring analysis of data centers, game-changing technologies, and cost breakthroughs.
Executive Summary
The 2024 Annual Decarbonization Perspective produces evidence-based strategies for the United States to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Using RIO and EnergyPATHWAYS, we capture the dynamics between and among energy sectors to evaluate infrastructure, technology, land use, and cost requirements of different pathways to net zero.
Technology cost breakthroughs reduce the burden on policy alone to drive the clean energy transition, lowering the overall cost of decarbonization globally.
This year features three focus areas: Data Centers, Game-Changing Technologies (Next-Gen Geothermal, Geologic Hydrogen, LC3 Cement), and Cost Breakthroughs needed to scale competing low-carbon technology options.
Data Centers
The rapid expansion of data centers, driven by AI and large language models, is creating a major new source of electricity demand. ADP 2024 models demand under Baseline and High-Growth Scenarios ranging from 975 TWh to 1,680 TWh in 2050, up from 279 TWh today.
Data Center Load Growth
Electricity demand (TWh) under Central and High Data Center scenarios
Game-Changing Technologies
Three emerging technologies that could reshape the path to net-zero: next-generation geothermal energy, geologic hydrogen, and LC3 cement.
Next-Gen Geothermal
Recent advances in horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and high-pressure fluid pumping are unlocking new potential in clean energy. Next-generation geothermal has transformed from a geographically limited resource to one providing economically competitive thermal energy across much of the U.S. Use the slider to see how steam production shifts from fuel boilers to geothermal and electricity by 2050.
Steam Production
Technology mix by year (TBTU)
Geologic Hydrogen
Generated through natural processes involving water and iron-rich minerals, geologic hydrogen may prove scalable, widely abundant, and low cost. ADP 2024 is the first study to showcase the economy-wide impacts of a breakthrough in geologic hydrogen. In the Geologic H₂ scenario, hydrogen demand jumps to 82 Mt and production is dominated by 69 Mt of geologic supply.
Hydrogen Demand by End Use
Mt H₂ across scenarios
Hydrogen Production by Method
Mt H₂ across scenarios
LC3 Cement
Lime and calcined clay cement (LC3) uses low-cost common minerals to replace a large fraction of ordinary Portland cement, the source of most process emissions. LC3 eliminates a large share of CO₂ emissions from cement while reducing the cost of production—making it a key lever in industrial decarbonization pathways.
Cost Breakthroughs
ADP 2024 introduces a pioneering approach to cost targets by calculating what each technology needs to cost to replace another that doesn’t materialize—without increasing overall transition costs. Six technologies were analyzed: nuclear, geothermal, gas w/ CCS, offshore wind, solar, and direct air capture. The bars show the cost range between current policy and net-zero scenarios.
Technology Cost Target Ranges
Floating bar ranges showing cost targets needed for net-zero competitiveness
Interactive Figures
Explore all ADP 2024 data visualizations across scenarios