Project Lookbook
A curated portfolio of our most impactful energy system analyses — from national decarbonization pathways to utility resource planning, policy evaluation, and technology assessment.
An annually updated benchmark mapping detailed economy-wide pathways to net-zero, integrating technology costs, policy design, and infrastructure requirements.
Key Takeaways
Data center electricity demand could reach 975–1,680 TWh by 2050 — reshaping grid planning assumptions nationwide
Next-gen geothermal and geologic hydrogen emerge as game-changing technologies across multiple scenarios
Cost breakthroughs in solar, wind, and storage have made decarbonization cheaper than most 2020 projections assumed
Continental-scale decarbonization modeling for E.U. and U.K. countries, incorporating geospatial resource mapping and economy-wide optimization.
Key Takeaways
Wind capacity of 985–1,400 GW required across scenarios — the defining infrastructure challenge for Europe
Summer solar dominance vs. winter wind/hydrogen reliance creates a fundamentally seasonal electricity system
Direct air capture deployment ranges from 0 to 580+ Mt depending on biomass availability and policy stringency
The landmark national analysis mapping five spatially explicit pathways to net-zero, quantifying implications for investment, employment, and air quality.
Key Takeaways
Multiple technically feasible routes to net-zero exist — the choice is about values and priorities, not feasibility
Land use for energy infrastructure varies by 5x across pathways, making siting the key political constraint
Net-zero investment creates 500,000–1,000,000 net new energy jobs depending on pathway chosen
Modeled pathways for national decarbonization across energy, industry, and land sectors. First use of our ENSEMBLE tool exploring near-optimal futures.
Key Takeaways
Australia's renewable resources position it as a potential global clean energy superpower via hydrogen and ammonia exports
ENSEMBLE analysis revealed hundreds of near-optimal pathways — reducing dependence on any single technology bet
Balancing export ambition with domestic land use and environmental constraints is the defining challenge
Modeled decarbonization pathways to inform Poland's updated National Energy and Climate Plan, comparing technology and policy scenarios.
Key Takeaways
Poland's coal-heavy starting point makes the transition steeper but not more expensive than Western European peers
Nuclear and offshore wind in the Baltic emerge as essential complements to onshore renewables
Industrial heat decarbonization — steel, cement, chemicals — is the binding constraint, not electricity
Eight scenarios comparing technology availability, policy ambition, and infrastructure investment for Romania's energy transition.
Key Takeaways
Romania's existing nuclear fleet provides a cost-effective foundation that most E.U. neighbors lack
Natural gas serves as a bridge fuel longer than in Western Europe due to lower renewable resource quality
Cross-border electricity trade with neighbors is critical — Romania cannot decarbonize in isolation
Rapid, independent evaluation of federal energy and climate legislation — including the IRA, IIJA, and OBBBA — providing near-real-time policy analysis.
Key Takeaways
The IRA alone could cut U.S. emissions 42% below 2005 levels by 2030 — the first legislation to close most of the gap to Paris targets
Real-time modeling during legislative drafting directly informed policy design and public debate
OBBBA's clean energy rollbacks could erase 60–80% of IRA emissions reductions depending on implementation
Comparative analysis identifying where IRA incentives fall short of deep decarbonization requirements across sectors.
Key Takeaways
IRA is necessary but not sufficient — gaps remain in industrial heat, long-haul transport, and agriculture
Post-2030 emissions reductions require policy mechanisms the IRA doesn't address, particularly carbon pricing or standards
Technology-neutral approaches outperform technology-specific subsidies for closing the remaining gap
Multi-organization collaboration analyzing infrastructure, innovation, and employment outcomes across decarbonization strategies.
Key Takeaways
Sustained technology innovation reduces cumulative transition costs by 40–60% compared to today's technology alone
Robust transmission expansion is a no-regrets investment across all scenarios analyzed
Coordinated policy design — combining standards, incentives, and pricing — outperforms any single policy instrument
Technical guidance and modeling for federal CFE procurement strategies under Executive Order 14057.
Key Takeaways
Hourly matching is significantly more expensive than annual matching — but drives greater system-level clean energy deployment
Geographic flexibility in procurement dramatically reduces costs while maintaining environmental integrity
Federal procurement at scale can catalyze regional clean energy markets in underserved areas
Developed long-term decarbonization pathways for Japan, evaluating technology portfolios across power, industry, and transport while accounting for country-specific resource constraints.
Key Takeaways
Japan's limited land area and renewable resources make nuclear restart and hydrogen imports critical pathway components
Industrial decarbonization in steel and chemicals requires significant hydrogen or CCS deployment given limited electrification options
Offshore wind in Japanese waters represents the largest untapped domestic clean energy resource
Modeled multiple net-zero scenarios for a Midwestern utility, examining implications for gas distribution business and hybridized electric/gas space heating.
Key Takeaways
Hybrid electric/gas heating systems can reduce peak electric demand while still achieving deep emissions reductions
Gas distribution infrastructure faces stranded asset risk under aggressive electrification but retains value in hybrid scenarios
Net-zero pathways for the Midwest require significant wind buildout complemented by firm dispatchable resources
Assessed deep decarbonization pathways for an electric and gas utility, evaluating distribution system impacts under high electrification and the role of natural gas in a decarbonized system.
Key Takeaways
Distribution system upgrades under high electrification represent a significant share of total transition costs
Natural gas retains a role in firm power generation and industrial heat even in deep decarbonization scenarios
Coordinated electric and gas system planning reduces total costs compared to siloed utility planning
Analyzed statewide decarbonization focusing on load flexibility, renewable supply constraints, and emerging technology innovation, producing a marginal abatement cost curve.
Key Takeaways
Load flexibility reduces system costs significantly by shifting demand to align with solar generation peaks
Renewable supply constraints — permitting, land use, interconnection — are more binding than technology cost in California
The marginal abatement cost curve reveals diminishing returns beyond 80% emissions reduction without breakthrough technologies
Expanded IRP framework to include higher load growth, new technologies, and potential future policy requirements for stronger long-term system resilience.
Key Takeaways
Traditional IRP approaches underestimate capacity needs when load growth from electrification and data centers is incorporated
Including potential future carbon policy in planning avoids costly asset stranding and reduces long-term ratepayer risk
New technologies like long-duration storage and enhanced geothermal improve portfolio resilience across scenarios
Detailed modeling of California's carbon neutrality targets including 100% clean electricity options, Western Interconnection transmission, and cost impacts on ratepayers.
Key Takeaways
100% clean electricity in California requires significant out-of-state transmission or firm clean generation to manage evening ramps
Western Interconnection coordination reduces California's clean energy procurement costs substantially
Ratepayer impacts are manageable when spread over the transition timeline but spike under delayed action scenarios
All-islands decarbonization strategy modeling clean electricity and clean fuels deployment under unique island constraints.
Key Takeaways
Island grids require 4–6 hours of storage per MW of solar vs. 1–2 hours on the mainland — duration matters more
Inter-island transmission cables dramatically reduce total system costs compared to island-by-island planning
Green hydrogen for shipping and aviation is cost-competitive earlier in Hawaii than anywhere on the mainland
Economy-wide net-zero scenarios for Michigan, analyzing implications for DTE's service territory on investments in electric generation, delivery infrastructure, and alternative fuels.
Key Takeaways
Michigan's coal retirement timeline drives near-term investment decisions that shape long-term decarbonization costs
Electrification of heating in Michigan's cold climate creates significant winter peak demand challenges
Alternative fuels including hydrogen and renewable natural gas play a role in hard-to-electrify industrial sectors
Updated deep decarbonization analysis incorporating distribution feeder modeling into system-level optimization.
Key Takeaways
Distribution-level constraints change optimal resource portfolios — system-level models alone miss locational value
Flexible EV charging and building loads reduce peak capacity needs by 10–15% under high electrification
Distributed solar + storage competes with transmission-connected resources when distribution costs are included
Foundational study exploring economy-wide deep decarbonization pathways within PGE's service territory, evaluating electrification, DERs, and efficiency improvements.
Key Takeaways
Electrification of buildings and transport within PGE's territory could increase electricity demand substantially by 2050
Distributed energy resources provide meaningful value but cannot substitute for utility-scale clean generation
Energy efficiency remains the lowest-cost decarbonization strategy across all scenarios analyzed
Pathway modeling to inform Maine's 2025 Energy Plan, capturing building electrification, transport, and grid evolution.
Key Takeaways
Electricity demand could more than double by 2040 under full electrification of buildings and transport
Maine's heating oil dependence makes building electrification the single highest-impact intervention
Offshore wind in the Gulf of Maine is essential for meeting winter peak demand growth
Analyzed strategies for Massachusetts' climate targets with focus on competing building space heating strategies; informed the Commonwealth's Clean Energy and Climate Plan and sector-level emissions targets.
Key Takeaways
Building electrification is the single most important action — heating represents the largest share of MA emissions
Offshore wind is the backbone of Massachusetts' clean electricity future, requiring 15–25 GW by 2050
The 2020s are the critical decade — delayed action raises cumulative costs by 30–40%
Outlined strategies for 100% clean energy and 80% emissions reduction by 2050, integrating policy, technology, and economic modeling.
Key Takeaways
Offshore wind and solar can supply the majority of New Jersey's electricity, but firm clean resources are needed for winter reliability
Electrification of buildings and transport roughly doubles electricity demand, requiring massive grid investment
Natural gas phase-down in buildings is feasible but requires early action to avoid stranded pipeline investment
Developed technology pathways aligned with New York's 2030 and 2050 emissions targets across electricity, buildings, transportation, and industry.
Key Takeaways
New York's building stock — dominated by older, gas-heated structures — is the most challenging sector to decarbonize
Aggressive renewable deployment combined with existing nuclear and hydro can achieve a clean grid by the mid-2030s
Transportation electrification delivers the largest near-term emissions reductions per dollar invested
Technical, economic, and equity analysis for Oregon's HB 3630 energy strategy, covering all sectors and regions.
Key Takeaways
Oregon's hydropower base provides a clean energy advantage but faces climate-driven variability risks
Industrial emissions from forestry, agriculture, and manufacturing require sector-specific policy beyond electricity standards
Coordinated regional planning with Washington and California reduces costs for all three states
Economy-wide energy pathways for Washington supporting EPA CPRG planning and implementation.
Key Takeaways
Transportation electrification and building heat pumps are the two highest-value CPRG investment categories
Washington's clean grid means electrification delivers near-immediate emissions reductions unlike fossil-heavy states
Industrial natural gas use is the hardest-to-abate sector requiring hydrogen or electrification innovation
Evaluated cost-effective pathways to achieve Washington's 2050 emissions goals across fuels, industry, and end-use sectors.
Key Takeaways
Washington's abundant hydropower makes it one of the lowest-cost states to achieve deep power sector decarbonization
Buildings and transportation represent the largest remaining emissions challenge after cleaning the grid
Clean fuels including hydrogen play a growing role in industrial heat and heavy-duty transport by mid-century
Modeled multiple pathways for Washington to reduce GHG emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 without early retirement of existing assets.
Key Takeaways
Deep decarbonization is achievable without forced early retirement of existing generation assets through natural turnover
Transportation electrification and building efficiency are the two most impactful demand-side strategies
The Pacific Northwest's clean electricity base enables faster economy-wide decarbonization through electrification
Developed a comprehensive energy transition strategy for Florida consistent with a 350 ppm CO2 trajectory by 2100.
Key Takeaways
Florida's abundant solar resource makes it well-positioned for deep power sector decarbonization at relatively low cost
Transportation — particularly personal vehicles and freight — represents the largest decarbonization challenge in a car-dependent state
Building cooling demand growth under climate change increases electricity needs even as heating loads remain minimal
Explored four key strategies for Virginia to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, including efficiency, renewables, electrification, and CCS.
Key Takeaways
Virginia's data center corridor creates both a challenge and an opportunity — massive load growth that can anchor clean energy procurement
Offshore wind off the Virginia coast is the single largest clean energy resource available to the state
CCS at industrial facilities along the coast provides a pathway for sectors that cannot fully electrify
Analyzed decarbonization scenarios for Oregon including economy-wide net-zero target, gas build restrictions, and different electrification rates.
Key Takeaways
Gas build restrictions accelerate the transition to clean alternatives without significantly increasing system costs
Higher electrification rates reduce total energy system costs by leveraging Oregon's clean electricity supply
Regional coordination across the Pacific Northwest delivers cost savings that benefit all participating states
Analyzed viable pathways for Wisconsin to reach clean electricity and net-zero emissions by 2050, feeding into an economic impacts study by Cambridge Econometrics.
Key Takeaways
Wisconsin can achieve 100% clean electricity while maintaining reliability through a combination of wind, solar, and storage
The clean energy transition creates net positive employment in Wisconsin, particularly in construction and manufacturing
Early coal retirement paired with renewable replacement reduces both costs and emissions compared to extending coal plant life
Decarbonization modeling for Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, linking technology choices with equity and health outcomes.
Key Takeaways
Retiring coal plants and replacing with renewables delivers immediate air quality and health benefits in frontline communities
Solar-dominant pathways in the Southwest are cost-competitive today and reduce water consumption compared to thermal generation
Equitable transition planning requires targeting clean energy investment in communities most impacted by fossil fuel pollution
Explored opportunities and challenges for the Midwest region in transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050 as part of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project.
Key Takeaways
The Midwest's exceptional wind resources make it a potential clean energy exporter to neighboring regions
Agricultural emissions and industrial process heat are the hardest-to-abate sectors in the Midwest economy
Coal-dependent communities require targeted transition support as power sector decarbonization accelerates
Technical review of California's 2022 Scoping Plan strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, evaluating feasibility of multiple scenarios.
Key Takeaways
California's carbon neutrality goal by 2045 is technically achievable but requires sustained policy commitment and investment
The Scoping Plan relies heavily on carbon capture and removal — technologies that need significant cost reduction
Accelerating building and transportation electrification reduces reliance on uncertain negative emissions technologies
Technical modeling of regional pathways to net-zero across the Pacific Northwest by 2050.
Key Takeaways
Regional coordination reduces costs 15–20% compared to each state pursuing net-zero independently
The Northwest's hydropower advantage makes it one of the cheapest regions to decarbonize in the U.S.
Cross-border electricity and hydrogen trade with British Columbia creates significant mutual benefits
One of the first comprehensive multi-state decarbonization analyses for the Pacific Northwest (WA, OR, ID, MT), targeting 80% emissions reduction by 2050.
Key Takeaways
The Pacific Northwest can achieve 80% emissions reduction while maintaining energy affordability through regional coordination
Existing hydropower provides a unique advantage but faces climate-driven variability that requires complementary resources
Early action on building codes and vehicle standards locks in emissions reductions that compound over decades
Analytical support for Montana's inaugural climate strategy including scenario analysis of emissions trajectories and technology pathways.
Key Takeaways
Montana's wind resources are among the best in the nation, positioning it as a potential clean energy exporter
Coal plant retirements at Colstrip represent both the largest emissions reduction opportunity and the biggest transition challenge
Agricultural and land-use emissions require targeted strategies beyond the energy system
Analyzed 80% emissions reductions by 2050 across the Northeast, assessing cross-border electricity coordination with Quebec.
Key Takeaways
Expanded transmission ties with Quebec reduce Northeast decarbonization costs through access to firm, dispatchable hydropower
Cross-border coordination provides winter reliability benefits that are especially valuable under high building electrification
Quebec's surplus hydropower capacity can serve as a balancing resource for variable wind and solar in New England
Energy-system modeling underpinning API's macroeconomic impacts analysis of a U.S. carbon price, quantifying economic, employment, and emissions impacts.
Key Takeaways
A carbon price drives significant emissions reductions in the power sector first, then cascades to buildings and transport
Economic impacts depend heavily on how carbon price revenues are recycled — rebates vs. investment vs. deficit reduction
Employment shifts from fossil fuel extraction to clean energy manufacturing and construction over the transition period
Investigated cost impact and investment pathways to U.S. deep decarbonization, evaluating policy decisions and uncertainties that impact costs the most.
Key Takeaways
Technology cost uncertainty — particularly for storage and hydrogen — has a larger impact on transition costs than policy design
Early investment in transmission and infrastructure reduces total system costs across all policy scenarios
The gap between current policy and net-zero can be closed through a combination of standards, incentives, and targeted R&D
Assessed implications of the U.S. 45V tax credit for clean hydrogen, quantifying impact of additionality, deliverability, and time-matching requirements on hydrogen cost and carbon intensity.
Key Takeaways
Strict three-pillar requirements increase hydrogen production costs but ensure genuine emissions reductions
Without additionality requirements, electrolytic hydrogen can increase grid emissions by drawing on fossil generation
Hourly matching is more important than annual matching for ensuring low-carbon hydrogen, particularly in fossil-heavy grids
Energy systems modeling supporting assessment of the role of DAC technology in U.S. decarbonization and potential policy actions.
Key Takeaways
DAC becomes economically relevant when marginal abatement costs in hard-to-decarbonize sectors exceed DAC costs
Policy support for DAC — including 45Q enhancements and procurement commitments — is essential to drive learning-by-doing cost reductions
DAC deployment is most valuable as a complement to, not a substitute for, direct emissions reductions
Analyzed policies affecting U.S. natural gas demand (LNG, pipelines, clean energy policies, electrification) creating emissions impact wedges.
Key Takeaways
Building electrification policies represent the largest single wedge of domestic natural gas demand reduction
LNG export expansion can partially offset domestic demand decline but increases global emissions accounting complexity
Clean energy policies and electrification combined could reduce U.S. gas demand significantly by mid-century
Developed guiding principles for redesigning the European electricity market, demonstrating future market prices in a highly renewable system.
Key Takeaways
Electricity market prices in a renewable-dominant system are fundamentally different — high volatility with frequent near-zero prices
Long-term contracts and capacity mechanisms become essential for investment signals as energy-only markets erode
Market redesign must account for cross-border flows and the growing role of flexibility and storage
Technical modeling of various policy and decarbonization scenarios, supporting the 2021 Transformative Climate Action Framework and 2023 Accelerating Clean Energy Ambition reports.
Key Takeaways
Combining clean electricity standards with sector-specific mandates delivers deeper reductions than either approach alone
Equity-centered policy design can achieve comparable emissions reductions while directing benefits to overburdened communities
Accelerated timelines — 2035 clean grid targets — are achievable with existing technology but require immediate policy action
Contributed economy-wide transition strategies to the comprehensive plan for U.S. carbon neutrality by 2050.
Key Takeaways
Carbon neutrality by 2050 requires coordinated action across all sectors — no single sector solution is sufficient
The investment required is large in absolute terms but modest relative to GDP and generates net economic benefits
Near-term action in the 2020s is critical for staying on track — delayed starts require steeper and more costly reductions later
Analyzed federal policy's role in enabling a low-carbon, high-renewables electricity system, identifying a least-cost pathway with a hybrid policy package.
Key Takeaways
A hybrid policy combining clean energy standards with production tax credits outperforms either mechanism alone
Federal policy is essential because state-by-state approaches miss regional optimization opportunities
Early investment in transmission doubles the emissions reduction per dollar of clean energy subsidy
Analyzed the gap between current policy and the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution, evaluating emissions reductions achievable through Clean Air Act regulatory authority.
Key Takeaways
Existing Clean Air Act authority can close a significant portion of the gap to the U.S. NDC without new legislation
Power sector regulations deliver the largest near-term reductions, but transportation and industrial rules are also essential
Regulatory uncertainty slows private investment — clear, durable standards are needed to unlock capital deployment
Developed an analytical framework for prioritizing R&D in the energy sector, evaluating technology deployment and interaction under different innovation scenarios.
Key Takeaways
R&D in long-duration storage and clean hydrogen delivers outsized system value by unlocking flexibility across sectors
Technology interactions matter — breakthroughs in one area change the value of innovation in others
A diversified R&D portfolio outperforms concentrated bets on any single technology
Reviewed Amazon's target-setting methodology, analyzing whether sector-specific and company-wide targets are consistent with 1.5C-aligned pathways.
Key Takeaways
Corporate targets must be benchmarked against sector-specific decarbonization pathways to ensure credibility
Scope 3 emissions accounting remains the most challenging aspect of corporate target-setting
1.5C alignment requires near-term milestones, not just long-term net-zero pledges
Analyzed optimal spending of Climate Commitment Act Fund revenues across transportation, buildings, industry, and electricity sectors.
Key Takeaways
Building electrification and EV incentives deliver the highest emissions reduction per dollar of public investment
Industrial decarbonization requires public investment because market signals alone are insufficient
Revenue volatility from carbon markets creates planning challenges that require multi-year commitment frameworks
Supported the NYT in visualizing the electrification of different U.S. economy sectors in line with net-zero by 2050.
Key Takeaways
Electrification touches every part of daily life — from cars to furnaces to industrial processes — in a net-zero future
The scale of electricity demand growth required for full electrification is larger than most people realize
Visual storytelling based on rigorous modeling helps the public understand the tangible changes decarbonization requires
Modeled power-sector decarbonization across Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania focused on clean electricity standard design.
Key Takeaways
Optimal clean electricity standard design varies significantly by state depending on existing generation mix and resources
Technology-inclusive standards that credit nuclear and CCS alongside renewables reduce costs in most states
Interstate coordination and regional wholesale market design amplify the effectiveness of state-level standards
Analyzed cost and infrastructure impacts of seven alternative CES policy designs covering the entire U.S. electricity system with regional detail.
Key Takeaways
Technology-neutral CES designs that include all zero-carbon sources reduce costs compared to renewables-only mandates
Regional transmission expansion is the single most important infrastructure investment for any CES design
The last 10% of clean electricity — from 90% to 100% — costs disproportionately more without firm clean resources
Quantified energy system costs with and without flexible EV charging in Colorado's decarbonizing grid.
Key Takeaways
Flexible EV charging saves billions in system costs through 2040 by shifting demand to high-solar hours
Unmanaged charging during evening peaks increases the need for firm capacity by 15–20%
Rate design is the key lever — time-of-use rates capture 70% of theoretical flexibility value
Analyzed the interaction between EV charging, V1G/V2G capabilities, and grid decarbonization under California's clean energy targets.
Key Takeaways
V2G provides 2–3x the system value of smart charging (V1G) alone by displacing peaker plants and reducing storage needs
Battery degradation costs from V2G are offset by system savings at current battery price trajectories
V2G value increases over time as the grid becomes more renewable and peaking resources become more expensive
Modeled U.S. aviation decarbonization pathways with focus on geographic patterns of SAF production, investment, and job creation.
Key Takeaways
SAF production clusters in the Midwest and Gulf Coast where biomass feedstock, hydrogen, and existing refining infrastructure converge
A domestic SAF industry could support 250,000+ jobs and $100B+ in investment through 2050
Fischer-Tropsch and alcohol-to-jet pathways dominate under most scenarios — HEFA alone cannot meet demand at scale
Investigated transportation electrification's role in economy-wide decarbonization for Arizona, assessing EV adoption and infrastructure needs.
Key Takeaways
Arizona's grid is well-suited for EV charging given high solar generation that aligns with midday charging patterns
EV infrastructure buildout in rural Arizona requires targeted public investment due to lower population density
Transportation electrification delivers significant air quality benefits in Phoenix and Tucson metro areas
Modeled U.S. transportation-sector decarbonization pathways quantifying benefits of electrification, efficiency, Smart Growth, and fuel-switching.
Key Takeaways
Vehicle electrification delivers the largest share of transportation emissions reductions across all scenarios
Smart Growth and transit-oriented development reduce vehicle miles traveled, compounding the benefits of cleaner vehicles
Heavy-duty trucking and aviation require low-carbon fuels as electrification alone cannot fully decarbonize these modes
Introduced innovative siting methodology with social/environmental scoring framework (replacing strict land exclusions) for renewable development optimization.
Key Takeaways
A scoring-based siting framework outperforms binary exclusion zones by allowing nuanced tradeoff evaluation
Nationally optimized siting patterns differ significantly from state-by-state planning, highlighting cross-border coordination value
Community acceptance scores shift optimal buildout toward less contentious sites with modest cost increases
Renewable energy siting analysis across eleven Western states, demonstrating net-zero is achievable without utilizing the most sensitive lands.
Key Takeaways
Excluding the most environmentally sensitive lands increases system costs only 3–6% across the Western U.S.
Transmission expansion is the critical enabler — without new lines, land constraints drive costs up substantially
Siting constraints shift optimal buildout toward more distributed, smaller-scale projects closer to load centers
Developed detailed load shapes under varying electrification assumptions for regional transmission planning.
Key Takeaways
Heat pump adoption in SPP's cold-weather zones creates winter peaks that exceed current summer peaks by 2040
EV charging flexibility can offset 30–40% of incremental peak demand growth if managed with time-of-use signals
Weather year variability creates a 20% range in peak demand — planning to a single weather year misses critical risk
Integrated economic modeling with GIS-based renewable siting evaluation, demonstrating Massachusetts can achieve solar goals while preserving natural habitats.
Key Takeaways
Massachusetts can meet its solar targets without developing core wildlife habitats or productive farmland
Rooftop and parking canopy solar reduce the need for greenfield development but at higher per-unit costs
Strategic siting on already-disturbed land and brownfields delivers both conservation and clean energy benefits
System analysis and scenario insights supporting RMI's work on regional and interregional transmission projects across the U.S.
Key Takeaways
Interregional transmission delivers benefits that are consistently undervalued in traditional cost-benefit analyses
Transmission investments made now provide optionality value under uncertain future technology and policy outcomes
Regional transmission planning processes need reform to capture cross-border benefits that no single utility sees
Developed a suite of energy demand scenarios extending beyond CEC's IEPR forecast, including hourly electricity load and annual fuel demand; delivered a custom tool for CEC staff.
Key Takeaways
EV charging patterns — not total energy — drive the shape of California's future peak demand problem
Climate change shifts peak loads later in the day and extends cooling seasons, compounding electrification impacts
Building electrification creates a new winter morning peak that California's grid has never planned for
Co-authored report on impacts of high electrification in the U.S., mapping trajectories across buildings, industry, and transport.
Key Takeaways
Widespread electrification could increase U.S. electricity demand 40–70% by 2050 depending on efficiency gains
Flexible managed charging reduces incremental generation capacity needs by up to 50%
The study's load shape data became the national reference dataset used by ISOs and utilities across the country
Licensed hourly electric load shapes through 2050 for all 50 U.S. states across seven weather years and nine decarbonization scenarios, including climate-impacted HVAC loads.
Key Takeaways
Climate-impacted HVAC loads are materially different from static-climate assumptions, particularly in Southern states
Seven weather years capture meaningful variability that single-year planning misses, especially for extreme events
The dataset became a foundational input to NREL's Standard Scenarios and multiple utility IRP processes
Produced high electrification load shapes for Canada, U.S., and Mexico with Canadian loads downscaled to nodal level for production cost modeling.
Key Takeaways
Canada's electrification load shapes are dominated by heating, creating winter peaks that differ fundamentally from U.S. patterns
Nodal-level load downscaling reveals distribution constraints that aggregate models miss
Continental coordination between the three countries offers significant benefits for renewable integration and reliability
Explored cost and energy savings of pairing energy efficiency and flexible load DER solutions across 24 end uses in 48 states plus DC.
Key Takeaways
Combining efficiency with flexible load delivers more value than either strategy alone across most building end uses
Water heating and HVAC offer the largest flexible load potential among residential end uses
Regional variation in savings is substantial — climate zone and grid mix drive very different outcomes state by state
Developed load shapes and end-use profiles for eleven Western U.S. states across three demand-side electrification scenarios and eight weather years.
Key Takeaways
Load shape diversity across eight weather years reveals peak demand ranges that single-year analysis understates
Electrification shifts the Western grid from a summer-peaking to a dual-peaking system in several states
End-use level profiles enable more targeted demand-side management programs than aggregate load forecasts
Developed hourly electric load shapes for data center demand scenarios to inform grid modeling under accelerated coal retirement.
Key Takeaways
Data center loads are uniquely flat — 90%+ capacity factor — making them fundamentally different from other demand growth
Flat loads in regions with high solar penetration increase the need for evening/overnight generation resources
Matching data center growth with co-located clean firm generation avoids stranding gas and coal assets
Modeled unconventional load growth scenarios including accelerated data center demand for a Texas utility's long-term planning.
Key Takeaways
Data center demand growth in Texas could require tens of GW of new generation capacity within the decade
Behind-the-meter generation at data centers changes the utility's load profile and resource planning calculus
Flexible data center operations — workload shifting and demand response — can provide significant grid value if properly incentivized
Expanded RIO framework to global scale with a comprehensive international database, underpinning an annual scenario-based assessment of long-term energy system trends.
Key Takeaways
Global-scale modeling reveals regional interdependencies that national models miss — particularly for trade in hydrogen and clean fuels
Technology cost trajectories in emerging economies diverge from developed-world assumptions, changing optimal global pathways
Annual scenario updates capture rapidly shifting dynamics in energy markets, policy, and technology costs
Translated energy system investment into direct, indirect, and induced employment impacts across European economies.
Key Takeaways
Net-zero pathways create 2–3 million net new energy jobs across the E.U. by 2040, concentrated in manufacturing and construction
Countries that build domestic clean energy supply chains capture 3–5x more employment than those that import technology
The transition creates geographic winners and losers — retraining and regional investment are essential for political durability
Assessed value of pumped hydro investment opportunities in the Western U.S. under a range of future scenarios.
Key Takeaways
Pumped hydro value increases substantially under high-renewable scenarios due to growing need for long-duration flexibility
Location-specific value varies by more than 2x depending on proximity to renewable generation and transmission
Pumped hydro provides multiple value streams — energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary services — that batteries cannot fully replicate
Advised on simulating residential solar and provided detailed modeling of storage and net-energy metering.
Key Takeaways
Net energy metering policy design has a larger impact on residential solar economics than module cost reductions
Pairing storage with residential solar significantly increases value under time-of-use and demand charge rate structures
Accurate solar production modeling requires granular weather data — annual averages obscure meaningful performance variation
Represented thermal energy storage in system models and analyzed value to support technology deployment and project bids.
Key Takeaways
Thermal storage for industrial heat is cost-competitive today in regions with high solar penetration and gas prices above $4/MMBtu
The ability to shift electricity-to-heat conversion to off-peak hours provides both industrial savings and grid benefits
Industrial thermal storage competes with hydrogen for the same market — the winner depends on duration and temperature requirements
Modeled system-level impacts and value streams of long-duration energy storage across the U.S. under multiple policy scenarios.
Key Takeaways
Long-duration storage value increases nonlinearly as renewable penetration exceeds 70–80% of generation mix
Storage durations beyond 8 hours access seasonal and multi-day value streams that 4-hour batteries cannot capture
Policy scenarios with clean energy standards create higher and more predictable value for long-duration storage than carbon pricing alone
Emerging technology assessment in Oregon analyzing the Swan Lake pumped storage project's role in regional renewable integration and reliability.
Key Takeaways
Swan Lake's location near high-quality wind and solar resources maximizes its integration value for the Oregon grid
Pumped storage provides reliability services — inertia, frequency response — that battery storage does not natively provide
The project's long asset life creates value optionality under uncertain future renewable buildout scenarios
Evaluating integration synergies between pumped storage and offshore wind resources in Oregon.
Key Takeaways
Pumped hydro paired with offshore wind reduces curtailment by 40–60% compared to wind with battery storage alone
12+ hour duration storage captures seasonal value that 4-hour batteries fundamentally cannot access
Co-located pumped hydro reduces transmission requirements for offshore wind interconnection
Analyzed a novel thermal energy storage technology using California as a test case, running sensitivities to identify deployment conditions; results supported a demonstration project grant.
Key Takeaways
Thermal storage is most competitive at industrial sites with high and consistent heat demand and access to low-cost off-peak electricity
California's duck curve creates favorable economics for thermal storage that charges during midday solar surplus
The analysis supported a successful demonstration project grant, accelerating technology commercialization
Modeled technology sensitivities for the Allam-Fetvedt cycle evaluating competitiveness of carbon-capturing gas generation under evolving policy and market conditions.
Key Takeaways
The Allam cycle is most competitive when carbon prices exceed a threshold that makes conventional gas with CCS more expensive
Natural gas price volatility is the largest single uncertainty affecting Allam cycle project economics
The technology provides firm, dispatchable clean power — a value that increases as renewable penetration grows
Quantified the scale, regional distribution, and cost of carbon management infrastructure required for a least-cost U.S. net-zero transition.
Key Takeaways
Carbon management infrastructure — CO2 pipelines, storage sites, DAC facilities — requires coordinated regional planning
The Gulf Coast and Midwest emerge as the primary hubs for CO2 transport and geologic storage
Carbon capture costs are highly application-specific — point-source capture at industrial facilities is far cheaper than direct air capture
Enhanced spatial and technology specificity of biomass supply representation and developed three national scenarios to assess high-hydrogen decarbonization pathways.
Key Takeaways
Biomass supply constraints become binding at high utilization rates, creating competition between power, fuels, and carbon removal
High-hydrogen pathways require massive electrolyzer deployment and dedicated renewable generation capacity
Regional biomass availability varies enormously — national-average assumptions misrepresent feasibility in many states
Examined the role of low-carbon fuels (especially hydrogen) in achieving U.S. net-zero after maximizing efficiency and electrification.
Key Takeaways
Low-carbon fuels are essential for sectors that cannot electrify — heavy industry, long-haul aviation, and shipping
Hydrogen demand is concentrated in a few applications; broader hydrogen use beyond these niches is not cost-effective
Maximizing electrification first reduces total low-carbon fuel demand and the associated infrastructure investment
Modeled 10 scenarios for deploying green hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels in Washington, quantifying electricity demand, infrastructure, and environmental justice impacts.
Key Takeaways
Green hydrogen production in Washington benefits from abundant low-cost hydropower and wind resources
Electrolyzer siting decisions have significant environmental justice implications for local communities
Hydrogen-derived fuels like ammonia and synthetic jet fuel are needed for maritime and aviation applications in the Pacific Northwest
Analyzed demand for low/no-carbon fuels in Arizona and the Southwest, supporting the Arizona Thrives industry consortium.
Key Takeaways
Arizona's solar resources create a competitive advantage for green hydrogen production via electrolysis
Industrial heat and heavy-duty transport are the primary markets for clean fuels in the Southwest
Regional clean fuel hubs connecting Arizona, Nevada, and California can achieve economies of scale in production and distribution
Analyzed hydrogen use in ADP scenarios using the Clean Hydrogen Ladder framework (rungs A to G), quantifying Mt H2 along each rung.
Key Takeaways
Hydrogen's highest-value uses are industrial feedstock and heavy-duty transport — not residential heating or light-duty vehicles
The hydrogen ladder framework helps policymakers prioritize limited clean hydrogen supply for highest-impact applications
Total U.S. hydrogen demand varies enormously by scenario, from modest industrial use to massive economy-wide deployment
Analyzed nuclear energy deployment under different reactor cost assumptions, showing how lower costs could increase capacity and support energy system cost savings.
Key Takeaways
Lower nuclear costs significantly increase optimal deployment, reducing the need for other firm clean resources
Nuclear provides unique system value through firm, dispatchable generation that complements variable renewables
Cost reductions from small modular reactors could make nuclear competitive in countries that currently find it uneconomic
Analyzed DOE's Energy Earthshots Initiative showing potential for ~3,900 Mt CO2 emissions and $850B in cost savings by meeting targets in hydrogen, carbon removal, long-duration storage, geothermal, offshore wind, and industrial heat.
Key Takeaways
Meeting all Earthshot targets could save ~3,900 Mt CO2 and $850B in cumulative system costs
Geothermal and long-duration storage Earthshots deliver the highest marginal value per R&D dollar invested
Technology interactions mean achieving multiple Earthshots simultaneously delivers greater benefits than the sum of individual targets
Cost-premium analysis for zero-carbon alternatives and wedges analysis quantifying contributions of various strategies to net-zero by 2050; featured in Bill Gates' book 'How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.'
Key Takeaways
Green premiums vary enormously by sector — electricity is near-zero while cement and steel remain high
The wedges analysis shows that no single technology or strategy is sufficient — a portfolio approach is essential
Findings were featured in Bill Gates' 'How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,' reaching millions of readers worldwide
Value modeling for multiple BEV portfolio companies assessing market potential, competitiveness, and system-level impact to inform investment prioritization.
Key Takeaways
System-level modeling reveals technology value that company-level analysis alone cannot capture
Market potential depends heavily on policy and carbon price assumptions — robust technologies perform across scenarios
Technology interactions within the portfolio create synergies that increase collective value beyond individual company assessments
Developed a novel marginal abatement cost methodology capturing cross-technology and cross-sector interactions, proposing a new MAC curve structure.
Key Takeaways
Traditional MAC curves mislead by treating technologies as independent — interactions change the cost ordering significantly
The MAC 2.0 framework captures how deploying one technology changes the marginal value of others
Cross-sector interactions — like electrification increasing electricity demand — are essential for accurate abatement cost estimation
Analyzed long-term U.S. power market evolution across twelve regional systems, producing energy/capacity market price trajectories and net energy revenues through 2050.
Key Takeaways
Energy market prices diverge significantly across the twelve regions, driven by resource mix and policy differences
Capacity market revenues become increasingly important for firm resources as energy prices decline with renewable growth
Net energy revenue projections reveal which regions offer the most attractive returns for renewable and storage investment
Independent due diligence on a Western U.S. battery storage portfolio, forecasting lifetime revenues and dispatch value under multiple conditions.
Key Takeaways
Storage portfolio value depends heavily on market design and the pace of renewable energy deployment in the Western U.S.
Revenue stacking across energy arbitrage, capacity, and ancillary services is essential for project economics
Duration and location are the two most important factors determining individual storage asset value within the portfolio
Commercial due diligence for a California battery storage project, quantifying value across utility, grid, and customer service layers.
Key Takeaways
California's duck curve creates favorable arbitrage economics for 4-hour battery storage projects
Stacking utility, grid, and customer service revenues increases project returns substantially beyond single-use operation
Resource adequacy value in California is growing as thermal retirements accelerate, supporting higher capacity payments
Developed resource investment strategies for Europe-wide clean energy targets by 2050 at least cost, identifying optimal technology mixes and timing.
Key Takeaways
Optimal European resource portfolios are heavily weighted toward wind in the north and solar in the south
Early investment in interconnection and transmission across European borders reduces total system costs significantly
Investment timing matters — front-loading deployment captures learning curve benefits and avoids costly late-stage acceleration
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