Annual Decarbonization Perspective
European ADP 2024
New geospatial capabilities for continent- and economy-wide decarbonization modeling across E.U. and U.K. countries. Featuring wind buildout scenarios, CO₂ capture analysis, and electricity balancing insights.
Executive Summary
The 2024 European Annual Decarbonization Perspective introduces new geospatial capabilities for continent- and economy-wide decarbonization modeling across E.U. and U.K. countries. Using RIO and EnergyPATHWAYS, we evaluate infrastructure, technology, and cost requirements across eleven scenarios ranging from a Core pathway to sensitivity cases on nuclear, renewables, biomass, and electrification pace.
This year’s analysis features deep dives into wind energy buildout, seasonal power generation, CO₂ capture pathways, electricity balancing, and net system costs across all modeled scenarios.
Prescriptive Policy
European climate policy is increasingly prescriptive, mandating specific technology deployments and phase-out timelines. Our scenarios explore how these mandates interact with economics and feasibility, revealing where policy ambition aligns with least-cost pathways and where it diverges.
The Cost of Inaction
Most scenarios converge toward net savings by 2050, driven by declining renewable costs. Notable exceptions: Slow Electrification and No Sequestration see costs rise sharply, while High Biomass and Low Demand achieve the deepest savings.
Net Costs by Scenario
Incremental system cost relative to reference (Billions €)
Winter Is Coming
Europe’s power system looks dramatically different between seasons. In summer, solar dominates midday generation and gas/H₂ power nearly vanishes. In winter, wind and gas/H₂ carry the load while storage manages morning and evening peaks. Toggle between seasons to see the contrast.
Example Winter Day Power Generation
Hourly generation by source · Europe · GW
Where the Wind Blows
Wind capacity across scenarios ranges from 985 GW (Low Demand) to 1,400 GW (No Sequestration). Onshore wind dominates in most scenarios, but constrained renewables pushes offshore fixed to its highest share. Unconstrained Renewables unlocks nearly 1,000 GW of onshore capacity alone.
Wind Buildout Scenarios
Cumulative wind capacity by type (GW)
What to Do with the CO₂
Carbon capture scales dramatically across scenarios by 2050. Cement capture is consistent across all pathways, while direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture vary enormously. The Slow Electrification scenario requires over 580 Mt of direct air capture alone. Use the slider to see how capture evolves over time.
CO₂ Capture by Technology and Scenario
Mt CO₂ captured across scenarios
Electricity Market Evolution
As Europe’s grid transforms, electricity markets must evolve to accommodate variable renewables, cross-border flows, and new flexibility sources. Our modeling reveals how market structures adapt to a system where dispatchable generation gives way to storage, demand response, and sector coupling.
From Storage to Balancing
Electricity storage and electrolysis for hydrogen emerge as the dominant balancing mechanisms by 2050, replacing coal and gas. Select different time periods to see how balancing needs shift from hourly flexibility to seasonal energy shifting.
Electricity Balancing
Hourly balancing by source (TWh)
Interactive Results
Explore all European ADP 2024 data visualizations across scenarios