Evolved Energy Research is a co-author on a new report released by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) exploring the demand-side impacts of high electrification in the U.S. The report uses the EnergyPATHWAYS model to map multiple electrification trajectories in buildings, industry, and transport. The next study phase will focus on electricity systems using ReEDS and PLEXOS to understand, in detail, the impacts of electrification on the power system.
Key findings in this report include:
- The transportation sector experiences the greatest technology transition toward electric vehicles in the scenarios.
- The buildings and industrial sectors generally see less potential for transformational change nationwide, but electrification in these sectors could acutely affect certain regions and end uses.
- Electrification has the potential to significantly increase overall demand for electricity, although even in the High scenario, compound annual electricity consumption growth rates are below long-term historical growth rates.
- In addition to growth in annual electricity consumption—driven to a large degree by greater adoption of plug-in electric vehicles—electrification has the potential to significantly shift load shapes, particularly due to increased reliance on electric heat pumps for space and water heating needs.
- Widespread end-use electric technology adoption would result in substantial shifts in fuel, electricity, and total energy consumption.
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